From the concerns arising from the oil crisis during the 1970s, the world became aware of the need to adopt new energy alternatives. In addition, the automotive industry has been pressured by governments and society to develop vehicles with better energy use and environmentally less pollutants, given that, in addition to the high variability in oil prices, issues have arisen such as air pollution in large cities and the problem of climate change caused by the emission of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels (Machado, 2015; Cortezzi, 2017).

Thus, new alternative technologies have been adopted globally, such as biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel), biofuel engines (flexfuel), electronic injection systems, hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), pure electric vehicles (PEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV) (Machado, 2015; Moraes; Barassa; Consoni, 2016).

It is noteworthy that the transport sector contributes 23% of global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion worldwide. In Brazil, this number increases to 45%, even with the use of ethanol and biodiesel. In turn, fossil fuels represent 80% of the supply of the transport sector whereas renewable sources represent 82% of the Brazilian electricity grid (Lemme; Arruda; Bahienseb, 2019).

In this scenario, according to the International Energy Agency, IEA (2020), battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have been strengthened due to the environmental benefits offered, such as the following:

Higueras-Castillo et al. (2020) emphasizes that it is important to improve the current EV technology, especially with regard to the driving range which remains as a barrier and a major concern for the vast majority of customers and professionals. In this sense, EV manufacturers should keep working on extending battery life in order to mitigate customers’ fear of running out of power during a trip.

Furthermore, Koroma et al. (2022) and Freitas and Marchesini (2022) highlight that extending the lifespan of electric vehicle batteries is crucial for improving environmental performance. According to the authors, these batteries retain 60% to 80% of their capacity after initial use and can last another 8 to 10 years in less demanding applications, providing environmental benefits and conserving natural resources. According to the Brazilian Electric Vehicle Association, ABVE (2024), EV batteries can have a “second life” in stationary applications, such as in solar or wind energy storage systems for homes and businesses.

Bai et al. (2020) observe that the growth and popularity of lithium-ion batteries in expanding markets, such as consumer electronics, electric vehicles, and renewable energy storage, are attracting significant interest and investment in the sector. According to the authors, the increasing demand is resulting in large volumes of used lithium-ion batteries, creating the need to develop recycling technologies that are both economically and environmentally sustainable for end-of-life battery management.

Abdelkareem et al. (2023) highlight that efforts are being made to minimize the environmental impact of battery manufacturing through the optimization of production processes and the sustainable sourcing of raw materials. Additionally, the authors state that there are initiatives to recycle and reuse battery materials, which contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and the overall environmental footprint. These aspects impact the planning of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure, as higher capacity batteries can increase EV range for longer trips, reducing the need for a high density of charging stations (Shen et al., 2019).

However, according to Pamidimukkalaum et al. (2024), the main barriers to EV adoption remain the limited availability of charging stations and the reduced driving range. The lower autonomy of EVs compared to conventional vehicles raises concerns about flexibility and the need to plan routes in advance. Furthermore, the longer time required to recharge batteries compared to refueling gasoline vehicles is also a significant barrier. Thus, in order to stimulate customer demand and accelerate EV adoption, a combined effort from car manufacturers, battery suppliers, energy providers, and governments is needed (Porchera et al., 2016; Deng, 2020).

In this context, this work aims to carry out a technological prospecting study on the potential for the implementation of electric vehicles in Brazil, which is of great relevance from an environmental, economic and social perspective, since it represents a future trend in the automotive sector in the country, as it has been in other countries.

To achieve this objective, this study used the Delphi technique and the Lawshe technique in addition to the bibliographic review technique.. The bibliographic review was used to contextualize the scenario, identify relevant issues and conduct an analysis of the state of the art in the matter. The Delphi technique is used to develop the opinion of experts and obtain consensus on future developments and events formulated as “projections”. The Lawshe technique was used as a support tool for the technological prospecting study in order to find the statistical response of the group regarding the application of the Delphi technique.

This technological prospecting study aims to investigate the potential for the implementation of electric vehicles in Brazil. According to Gil (2017), regarding the approach, this study is characterized as predominantly qualitative, as it seeks to evaluate the views of experts on the topic of electric mobility in the first questionnaire. However, a quantitative technique (Lawshe technique) is also used in the second questionnaire to find consensus in the responses.

Regarding the objective, this is an exploratory research because it involves a bibliographical review and survey to enable a greater familiarity with the problem in order to make it explicit or construct hypotheses. In addition, the exploratory nature of the research is consistent with Mayerhoff’s (2008) definition of prospective studies as exploring something that should happen or that we want to happen in the future. It can also be defined as the study of the future in order to develop strategies for shaping a desirable future.

It is noteworthy that prospection studies are the exploration of something that should happen or that we want to happen in the future. They can also be defined as the study of the future in order to develop strategies for shaping a desirable future (Mayerhoff, 2008). According to the author, the study of technological prospection forms the basic tool for grounding in decision-making processes at several levels of modern society, whose purpose is not to unveil the future but to guide and test possible and desirable visions for decision-making that will contribute to the future.

Among the methods addressed by Mayerhoff (2008), those based on “visions” and on the subjective constructions of experts, were adopted in this study. Caruso and Tigre (2004) define “vision” as the anticipation of future possibilities based on unstructured interactions between experts, each of whom relies solely on their knowledge and subjectivity.

Figure 1 presents the five stages of this work, which are consistent with the characterization of the research described previously.

Stage 1 corresponds to the bibliographical review carried out with the aim of obtaining theoretical foundations on the topic of electric mobility, as well as a basis for the study of technological prospecting. To select the relevant publications, Google Scholar and CAPES journal databases were consulted. Among the publications consulted, 55% are national (21% theses and 34% articles, books and websites specifically on the topic of electric mobility) and 45% are international (Elsevier, MDPI, SCImago, Taylor & Francis and others).

Stage 2 matches to the application of a first round of questionnaires to a target audience, for a qualitative analysis, with the objective of determining, based on the participants’ view, what are the challenges that are impacting the slow insertion of electric vehicles in Brazil compared to what has been happening globally.

This first instrument, developed based on the bibliographical review, was an integral part of a research project submitted to the UNICAMP Research Ethics Committee (CAAE: 46491321.1.0000.5404), which was approved on July 22, 2021. To respond to the questionnaire, the target audience selected for the research agreed to a Consent Form Free and Informed.

Stage 3 corresponds to the application of a second round of questionnaires to the 50 respondents of the first instrument, most of whom have expert profiles, due to their high level of knowledge on the topic of electric mobility and also their extensive experience in the area of technology and exact sciences in academia or in organizations in the segment.

In addition, all of them saw the need for improvements so that the diffusion of electric vehicles occurs in Brazil. Therefore, the objective of the second round of questionnaires was to apply the Delphi technique in order to obtain consensus regarding the factors identified and to seek to proposed solutions to the challenges encountered.

In this way, feedback was provided to the participants on the percentages of responses from the first questionnaire so that they had the opportunity to review their answers and provide additional arguments.

In this phase, a quantitative analysis of the responses is performed, using the Lawshe technique as validation tool. It is noted that the second questionnaire was also submitted to CEP-UNICAMP (CAAE: 46491321.1.0000.5404), obtaining approval on December 17, 2021. In addition, the participants agreed once more to the Free and Informed Consent Form.

Stage 4 presents the discussions and recommendations regarding the factors identified in stage 3, which are considered to be impacting the slow insertion of EVs at the national level. In this stage, an interview was also conducted with the president of the Brazilian Association of Electric Vehicles (ABVE) in 2022.

Stage 5 shows the final considerations (conclusions) and, consequently, answers to the problems of this research.

The application of the Delphi technique was a tool for conducting the technological prospecting study because it is able to provide communication with a target audience to consider hypothetical views of the research population on the subject of electric mobility and, based on this, understand why electric vehicles are slowly inserted in the Brazilian scenario. In this study, two rounds of questionnaires were applied, and the first instrument was developed based on a literature review, as shown in section 1, and demonstrated in Table 1.

It is highlighted that the questionnaires were submitted to the Research Ethics Committee (CEP) of UNICAMP for reviewing and authorization. The first questionnaire was registered under CAAE nº 46491321.1.0000.5404 and approved under CEP Opinion nº 4.862.757 on July 22, 2021. Similarly, the second questionnaire was registered under CAAE nº 46491321.1.0000.5404 and approved under CEP Opinion nº 5.175.404 on December 17, 2021.

Table 2 shows the results of the first round of questionnaires, which included the participation of a target audience consisting of 50 people (among them: professors and researchers from academies and research centers; executors and collaborators of the São Paulo Power and Light Company Emotive project; segment; graduate students and potential EV consumers) who could expose their points of view and thus allowing a qualitative analysis of the information. In order to have a qualitative analysis, this first instrument allowed the participants to openly expose their points of view.

The second round of questionnaires was made available to the 50 respondents of the first round, however, with the participation of 33 respondents, (a return rate of 66%) which represents a reliable percentage according to Marconi and Lakatos (2005). The questionnaires sent to respondents achieve an average return of 25%.

It is observed that, this second instrument was developed based on the results of the first questionnaire for each participant to inform whether they “agree”, “do not agree” or “do not know how to answer”, thus enabling a quantitative analysis. However, in each criterion, there was a field to add clarifications, if necessary.

In order to quantify the data obtained in this second round of Delphi, the Lawshe technique was applied, as shown in Table 3, and in each column, the following are described: the criteria; the number of respondents who agreed with the criterion (ne); the total number of respondents (N), (those who answered “I do not know how to answer” were not included); the percentage of respondents (% ne); the calculated CVR, the critical CVR and the decision to “Maintain” (items in which there was consensus and that were validated among the experts) or “Exclude” (items in which there was no consensus and were not validated among the experts).

According to Table 3, there is a consensus among experts responding to the Delphi technique regarding criteria 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 16a, 16c and 16d. Therefore, these items were considered valid as they demonstrate that they influence decision making regarding the future of electric mobility in the country, as we will see in the discussion below.

In criterion 1, there was unanimity among respondents that the high price of the car, which is linked to the cost of the battery, is the main barrier for the insertion of EVs in Brazil. Previous research has indicated that although Brazilians are concerned about issues such as global warming and air pollution, people in general are unwilling to pay a higher price to buy low-carbon cars. In this case, the electrified technology needs to have a cost closer to that of conventional vehicles. The following factors are the absence of public policies of any nature and incipient recharge infrastructure.

The result of criterion 2 shows that the main motivation for the Brazilian consumer for purchase an EV is fuel economy and maintenance costs. However, the study participants emphasize that the environmental appeal and the existence of tax subsidies have been the two reasons that most drive the change from combustion to electric engines in other countries. Thus, both the subsidy and the environmental appeal are linked, and both impact the final EV price.

Regarding criterion 3, the majority of respondents agreed that the prospects for the insertion of EVs in the Brazilian market are low or slow to gradual due to the high costs of automobiles, as well as all the technology involved, in addition to the lack of public policies and also the lack of planning between the areas of transportation, energy and the environment.

With regard to criterion 4, most respondents agreed that public incentive policies of any nature are the main reasons that lead countries such as China, the United States, European countries, among others, to present a greater number of electric vehicles compared to Brazil. These countries have greater government incentives, technology, infrastructure to enable the use and greater purchasing power by the population. In addition to this, more integrated public policies from environmental issues (such as agreements to reduce CO2) and efficiency energy to incentive policies for infrastructure, direct subsidies to purchase, special credits and even a policy for the green industry.

The evaluation of criterion 5 indicates that Brazil does not meet the conditions for a massive increase in EVs in the industry, at least in the short term, since most respondents justified that there is still a lack of companies, skilled labor and supporting infrastructure. As an example, several Brazilian states still have problems with energy demand due to insufficient infrastructure. Moreover, the market is still too small to justify its domestic production. Even if the manufacturing were to take place in the country, a significant number of parts would still be produced abroad.

Regarding criterion 8, the consensus found by most experts was that the recharge time considered adequate to attract the consumer of an EV is between 5 and 30 minutes, not only because it will be more commercially attractive but also it will facilitate long trips. It is noteworthy that the ideal would be the instant recharge or the same time in which an MCI is supplied; however, the existing fast recharge equipment, which recovers approximately 80% of the autonomy in approximately 30 minutes, has a very high cost and may also reduce the battery life.

The evaluation of criterion 9 shows a consensus among respondents that costs (and who will bear them) and the lack of public incentive policies, in addition to planning, are the main impediments to the expansion of recharge infrastructure in Brazil, since both items represent similar impediments because the costs are not paid simply for the sale of the recharge service. Also, the fact that there is no payback (the high cost of infrastructure associated with the small number of consumers) means that the business does not pay, making it unfeasible for someone to invest. Moreover, public policies for incentives and planning are seen as impediments because, currently, the market is still small. There is also the need for an expansion of the transmission and distribution infrastructure to meet the demand, in addition to a decarbonization policy of the transport sector that includes an increased supply of EVs, both light and heavy passengers, as well as providing support for the installation of electrophores.

As for criterion 10, there was a consensus among respondents that the upper class is the one that has the greatest ease of migration to an EV today because it is the population with the highest income, and also companies that operate with fleets, such as taxis, may be a niche depending on public policies.

With regard to criterion 11, there was a consensus by most respondents that public transport, cargo and taxi fleets should be the first to invest in the exchange ICE vehicles for 100% electric vehicles, reducing noise and air pollution. Given that, according to criterion 12, all respondents agreed that electric vehicles can boost the search for renewable energy sources because they are a more environmentally sustainable alternative.

Regarding criterion 14, there was a general opinion among the respondents that “Brazil should undergo a massification of HEVs and PHEVs before the diffusion of 100% electric vehicles” because these automobiles have been the preferred alternative for the transition from combustion engines to BEVs. In addition, HEVs (plug-in or not) are the ones that best adapt to the Brazilian market due to insufficient supply infrastructure. In addition, hybrids can help popularize electrified vehicles, establishing new suppliers in the Brazilian production chain (in the medium term) and allowing a transition to new technologies.

Finally, there was an agreement among respondents regarding criterion 16 (A, C and D) that the solution of obstacles to the implementation of EVs in Brazil depends on the creation of public policies, such as a. Exemption from import taxes; c. Long-term financing, with lower interest rates; and d. Manufacture of parts in the national territory and efforts to develop its own technology.

On the subject of criteria 6, 7, 13, 15 (A, B, C) and 16 (B, E), there was no consensus among experts responding to the Delphi technique. Thus, these items were invalidated because there are still uncertainties about decision-making regarding the future of this technology in Brazil, as we will see in the discussion below.

Concerning criterion 6, there is no consensus among experts that there will be a negative impact on the Brazilian electricity sector in the case of mass adoption of the three types of EVs, given that some of the participants consider that “no” will have a negative impact. Provided that, the growth will not be immediate but rather gradual. There will be a need for adjustments and reinforcements in the power grid due to the increased insertion of EVs, but it will be possible to adapt the electrical sector as the load increases. Contrary to the negative impact, there will be the creation of opportunities and new investments in energy generation since Brazil has the potential to generate electricity to meet the demand, especially from renewable sources (solar, wind, etc.). Conversely, the other part of the experts believes that “yes”, that is, there will be a negative impact on the Brazilian electricity sector in the case of mass adoption of the three types of EVs, because there will be an increase in demand that is not supported today by the precarious infrastructure, consequently, an increase in power generation and, in some cases, significant impacts on the distribution system, such as overload in electrical transformers.

With regard to criterion 7, that the process of manufacturing the EVs, including the production and disposal of the batteries, will NOT have a greater negative impact on the environment compared to the MCIs, there is also no consensus among the experts as some of the respondents agreed that there will be a negative NO impact, given that the EVs are cleaner and simpler and their production requires less mechanical structure. In addition, the process of battery production, reuse and recycling is evolving rapidly, with a second life expectancy for this component after 10 to 15 years in vehicles with stationary storage systems and, perhaps, a third life as a frequency regulator, transmission and substations. Therefore, reusing electric batteries will offset the emissions from battery manufacturing. For that reason, when considering the entire lifecycle of EVs, including battery recycling, these automobiles have less impact. Furthermore, another part of the respondents considers that there will be a negative impact on the environment, especially at the beginning of the insertion, with improvements over the years, mainly due to the current batteries (lithium battery, highly polluting and energy-consuming for its manufacture) and because the elements of an EV strongly depend on mineral extraction. For this reason, the chain should be considered in its entire cycle (from production to disposal) since discards will occur more frequently, and the impact will be greater.

In regard to criterion 13, there was also no consensus among the experts that the introduction of electromobility in Brazil should start with BEVs (100% electric) as the technology advances. Those who agreed with this criterion believe that it does not make sense to have two propulsion systems in a vehicle, since hybrids (plug-in or not) are an obsolete technological step and with a tendency to disappear around the world because they are the worst of both worlds, with more parts and risks of problems, maintenance and costs, not to mention that it keeps consumers captive to gas stations, fossil or not. In addition, hybrids do not have the benefits of low maintenance of an electric vehicle and are not completely emission-free, i.e., they can help reduce CO2 emissions by up to 40%, which limits the benefits of the vehicle.

In criterion 15 (a; b; c), there was no consensus among experts, since opinions were divided on whether the estimated EV growth, between 5% and 10%, in Brazil would be: a. in the short term (between 2022 and 2030); b. in the medium term (between 2031 and 2040) or c. in the long term (between 2041 and 2050). There were also those who agreed that this proportion of growth would occur in each period. Therefore, this item was invalidated due to the absence of prediction of the insertion of this technology in the future.

Finally, regarding criterion 16 (b; e), there was also no consensus among experts that “the solution of obstacles to the implementation of EVs in Brazil depends on the creation of public policies, such as “b”: “The Purchase is based on the exchange rate, enabling the exchange of the “traditional” vehicle used for an BEV of zero km” or “e”: “Creation of barriers to combustion vehicles.”

Participants in the study emphasized that creating barriers for combustion vehicles does not seem to be the appropriate path. Although in many countries the creation of barriers to ICEs is a favorable factor for the insertion of EVs, in Brazil, the most viable would be to create concessions and incentives for EVs. Even if it is considered that the prohibition of the manufacture and the subsequent circulation of an ICE, strengthens the VE, it is up to Brazil to consider that the combustion car is already a costly item and that it is not accessible to all population. Hence, the ideal for the country would be the creation of a policy of incentives for EVs, as well as free trade with a focus on the development (and promotion) of new technologies, to increase its competitiveness in the long term.

Questioned about what can be done to find solutions to the challenges that are impacting the slow insertion of EVs in Brazil, the respondents to the Delphi rounds issued the following recommendations:

With respect to the factors identified, it is possible to state that the greatest challenges for the insertion of electric mobility in the country are, first, the high cost of acquisition of the electric vehicle, and this is linked to the price of the battery (which can correspond to up to 50% of the value of the car). Additionally, this component is not yet fully developed, causing another obstacle to the dissemination of EVs, which is the limited autonomy. Other impeding factors are the long recharging time of EVs, the insufficiency of electrophores and the strong dependence on imports - a factor that increases the costs of the car due to the taxes added by the import process, restricting the purchase to a consumer class with greater purchasing power and preventing the massive insertion of EVs in the Brazilian scenario.

The limitations of this study include the following items, which did not reach consensus among experts and should be the subject of future studies:

On the other hand, despite the limitations, it is observed that the projections for the coming years are promising. According to ABVE (2024), the charging infrastructure in Brazil is growing rapidly, with an increase of 179%, which has been promoting jobs, income, and investments in several areas such as vehicle production, equipment, components, parts, software, and services. It is noteworthy that Brazil has a unique profile in terms of the possibilities for decarbonizing its transport matrix, particularly due to the availability of biofuels (EPE, 2024). In this scenario, the electrification of light vehicles has gained traction in recent years, despite challenges such as the cost of the vehicles and charging infrastructure (EPE, 2024).

According to ANFAVEA (2024), the sales of hybrid and light electric vehicles may surpass those of combustion vehicles by the end of this decade, reaching 1.5 million in 2030 and potentially representing more than 90% in 2040. In contrast, in the heavy-duty segment, EPE (2024) highlights that sales with new propulsion technologies could reach 60% in 2040. Furthermore, in areas such as urban buses, electric versions could surpass 50% by 2035.

ANFAVEA (2024) also highlights that this progress involves the development of a comprehensive ecosystem, which includes the supplier chain, charging infrastructure, energy generation and distribution, and also biofuel production.