WHICH CAME FIRST? EGGS AND CHICKEN IN BRAZIL

A NEW STUDY

Resumo

Almost 42 years ago, Thurman e Fisher (1988), in a funny paper, using the Granger causality test, concluded, with American data that eggs Granger-cause chicken.In 2011, Shikida, Araujo Jr and Figueiredo (2011) replicated the test to Brazilian quarterly data (1987.I-2011.I) and found bi-causality. This article uses Brazilian monthly data (1987.1-2020.9) under three alternative versions of the Granger test: the classical Granger-causality test, the Toda-Yamamoto version of the same test and the nonlinear Granger-causality proposed by Vinod (2020a). We found evidence that, for Brazil, the bi-causality still prevails for eggs and chicken.