ANÁLISE DO SPREAD BANCÁRIO BRASILEIRO

UMA VISÃO POLÍTICA-MACROECONÔMICA E O CONTEXTO DA COVID-19

Abstract

This dissertation contributes to the discussion regarding the spread in Brazil, evaluating its behavior under different credit lines. Through panel models, using indicators available on the website of the Central Bank of Brazil (BC), an assessment of the spread was made in two types of credit, both for Individuals and Legal Entities. The results show that the determinants of the spread in Brazil are valid. However, this research highlights the role of political instability, which appears to be significant to explain the change in the spread. The period which corroborates the explanation of an exogenous shock for the increase in the spread occurred between the years 2015 and 2016 - a period when the debate on the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff started a movement of frustration of economic forecasts Brazilian economy. This study also includes data from Covid-19 to verify the behavior of the spread after the pandemic.